Convective Outlook


SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will remain possible today across parts of the
southeast United States. No severe storms are expected.

...20Z Update...
A cold front continues to move southward over the northern Gulf of
Mexico and the Southeast this afternoon. Thunderstorm potential
through the remainder of today and tonight will likely be confined
to locations near/ahead of the front, as weak instability becomes
increasingly negligible behind it. The general thunderstorm area
across the Southeast has been adjusted to account for these trends.

..Gleason.. 12/10/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/

...Southeast States...
An upper trough is moving eastward across TX today, with a strong
midlevel jet extending from east TX across the Gulf Coast states.  A
combination of large-scale forcing for ascent, marginal elevated
CAPE values, and ample midlevel moisture will continue to pose a
risk of widespread showers today and tonight - mainly along and
behind a surface cold front sagging across the southeast states. 
Coverage of thunderstorms will likely be limited, but a few
lightning strikes are possible across a relatively broad area.

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Updated 10 December 2019 | 2:02 pm

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central
and southern Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A progressive upper pattern will occur Wednesday across the CONUS,
as multiple upper troughs develop eastward. A longwave trough
encompassing much of the eastern states will shift northeastward
into eastern Canada through the period. Stable conditions associated
with surface high pressure behind a cold front will greatly limit
thunderstorm potential across much of the central/eastern CONUS. One
exception will be along/ahead of the southward-moving front across
parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. Here, isolated
thunderstorms may develop Wednesday afternoon as diurnal heating
occurs. Weak flow at low/mid-levels across the warm sector and poor
mid-level lapse rates should limit organized severe potential across
this region.

Farther west, a shortwave trough is forecast to develop across the
Great Basin to the southern/central High Plains by early Thursday
morning. Negligible instability will be present across these
regions, and thunderstorms are not expected. A strong
mid/upper-level jet should overspread much of the Pacific Northwest
and northern CA by the end of the period. Gradually cooling
mid-level temperatures may support very weak elevated instability
along and just offshore the WA Coast late Wednesday night. At this
point, the potential for lightning over land appears too limited to
include a general thunderstorm area.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  
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Updated 10 December 2019 | 11:20 am

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible today from Texas eastward across
parts of the southeast US. No severe storms are expected.

...Southeast States...
An upper trough is moving eastward across TX today, with a strong
midlevel jet extending from east TX across the Gulf Coast states.  A
combination of large-scale forcing for ascent, marginal elevated
CAPE values, and ample midlevel moisture will continue to pose a
risk of widespread showers today and tonight - mainly along and
behind a surface cold front sagging across the southeast states. 
Coverage of thunderstorms will likely be limited, but a few
lightning strikes are possible across a relatively broad area.

..Hart/Nauslar.. 12/10/2019

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Updated 10 December 2019 | 10:20 am