Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will remain possible today across parts of the southeast United States. No severe storms are expected. ...20Z Update... A cold front continues to move southward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast this afternoon. Thunderstorm potential through the remainder of today and tonight will likely be confined to locations near/ahead of the front, as weak instability becomes increasingly negligible behind it. The general thunderstorm area across the Southeast has been adjusted to account for these trends. ..Gleason.. 12/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/ ...Southeast States... An upper trough is moving eastward across TX today, with a strong midlevel jet extending from east TX across the Gulf Coast states. A combination of large-scale forcing for ascent, marginal elevated CAPE values, and ample midlevel moisture will continue to pose a risk of widespread showers today and tonight - mainly along and behind a surface cold front sagging across the southeast states. Coverage of thunderstorms will likely be limited, but a few lightning strikes are possible across a relatively broad area.Read more
Updated 10 December 2019 | 2:02 pm
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will occur Wednesday across the CONUS, as multiple upper troughs develop eastward. A longwave trough encompassing much of the eastern states will shift northeastward into eastern Canada through the period. Stable conditions associated with surface high pressure behind a cold front will greatly limit thunderstorm potential across much of the central/eastern CONUS. One exception will be along/ahead of the southward-moving front across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. Here, isolated thunderstorms may develop Wednesday afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. Weak flow at low/mid-levels across the warm sector and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit organized severe potential across this region. Farther west, a shortwave trough is forecast to develop across the Great Basin to the southern/central High Plains by early Thursday morning. Negligible instability will be present across these regions, and thunderstorms are not expected. A strong mid/upper-level jet should overspread much of the Pacific Northwest and northern CA by the end of the period. Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures may support very weak elevated instability along and just offshore the WA Coast late Wednesday night. At this point, the potential for lightning over land appears too limited to include a general thunderstorm area. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: Read moreUpdated 10 December 2019 | 11:20 am
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today from Texas eastward across parts of the southeast US. No severe storms are expected. ...Southeast States... An upper trough is moving eastward across TX today, with a strong midlevel jet extending from east TX across the Gulf Coast states. A combination of large-scale forcing for ascent, marginal elevated CAPE values, and ample midlevel moisture will continue to pose a risk of widespread showers today and tonight - mainly along and behind a surface cold front sagging across the southeast states. Coverage of thunderstorms will likely be limited, but a few lightning strikes are possible across a relatively broad area. ..Hart/Nauslar.. 12/10/2019Read more
Updated 10 December 2019 | 10:20 am