Convective Outlook


SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS CORRIDOR...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SEVERAL
AREAS...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE PLAINS...MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds will be common with convection across the central
Plains tonight. Isolated hail/wind are also possible across portions
of the mid Mississippi/Ohio Valley region. A couple of tornadoes
remain possible in association with the remnants of Claudette.

...01z Update...

Central High Plains convection has developed as earlier anticipated.
This activity has matured quickly into an MCS near the CO/NE/KS
border, and it will surge east along the NE/KS border after sunset
as LLJ strengthens across KS into southern NE. Several wind reports
in excess of 75mph have already been reported across eastern CO and
if the developing bow over northwestern KS accelerates, additional
wind reports in excess of 70mph remain possible.

Semi-persistent corridor of back-building thunderstorms continue
across northeast MO. A reservoir of very unstable air currently
extends across northeast KS/northern MO. With southwesterly inflow
into this activity, renewed updrafts may continue to develop into
the northwestern flank this complex.

Downstream, thunderstorms have organized in the lee of lake MI
across northern IN. This activity should propagate southeast over
the next few hours and currently resides in an air mass that
supports robust updrafts. Will orient the SLGT Risk across
northwestern OH/northern IN to account for this cluster.

A couple of tornadoes remain possible in association with the
remnants of Claudette. Strongest low-level shear is shifting east
across the FL Panhandle into southwestern AL, and this is the
primary concern the rest of tonight.

..Darrow.. 06/20/2021

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Updated 19 June 2021 | 8:04 pm