Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity may continue across parts of eastern Texas into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and north central Gulf coast tonight, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley... Primary thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening has been focused within a narrow corridor of weak boundary-layer destabilization, along a pre-frontal surface trough curving roughly from west of the Houston through areas near/east of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. This could continue another hour or two, but seems likely to wane as the cold front overtakes the remnant corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating. Otherwise, it appears that the primary surface low will redevelop southeastward from northeastern Texas into Louisiana Gulf coastal areas overnight. Moisture return on strengthening southerly flow ahead of this feature, above a residual cool/stable boundary layer, may contribute to sufficient destabilization or new thunderstorm development across southeastern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi after 08-09Z. However, based on model forecast sounding, the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Northern intermountain region/Great Basin... Scattered thunderstorm development, aided by weak destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core of the inland migrating short wave trough, has been largely confined to the higher terrain to the southwest and south of the Snake River plain. Recent trends in lightning and objective instability analyses suggest this is in the process of waning. Although the development of convection capable of producing lightning may still not be completely out of the question, southward across parts of northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah into this evening, this potential appears increasingly negligible with probabilities for thunderstorms falling below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2020Read more
Updated 28 January 2020 | 6:50 pm