Storm Prediction Center Discussions


MD 2069 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...FAR WEST-CENTRAL AR
MD 2069 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 2069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Far West-Central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152034Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of strong wind gusts and/or
hail are possible this evening across northeast TX, southeast OK,
and far west-central AR.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have increased into the upper 80s/low 90s
amidst upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints ahead of the cold front moving
across central OK and north-central TX. Mid-level lapse rates are
not steep but the warm and moist low-levels are still enough to
support moderate instability (i.e. MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg).
Moderate to strong mid-level flow is also in place, supporting
strong vertical shear. The latest mesoanalysis estimated effective
bulk shear of 45-55 kt across much of the region.

Forcing for ascent along and ahead of the approaching cold front is
expected to result in increasing thunderstorm coverage over the next
several hours. Given the strength of the vertical shear, a few of
the more persistent updrafts may be able to organize into supercells
capable of isolated strong wind gusts and/or hail. However,
multicells are expected to be the predominant storm type and the
limited storm strength is expected to preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Hart.. 10/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32639678 32629767 33279804 34409621 35079516 34879440
            34099453 33029551 32639678 

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Updated 15 October 2019 | 3:35 pm