Current Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 152051
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The multiple circulations mentioned in the previous advisory
discussion now appear to have consolidated into a tight low-level
center that has recently passed over or near Sal island in the
northeastern Cabo Verde archipelago. Deep convection has increased
slightly and now consists of an elongated band confined to the
eastern semicircle due to modest southwesterly vertical wind shear,
leaving the low-level center exposed to the west. A late-arriving
1128Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated several 28-29 kt surface
wind vectors within the band of convection, which supports
maintaining an intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/09 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The
latest NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement that the
large cyclone will move generally northwestward during the next 48
hours or so, followed by a turn to the west-northwest when the
expected shallow system will become embedded in the brisk low-level
easterly trade wind flow. The new official track forecast is similar
to the previous advisory track, and lies just to the left of the
HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The environmental conditions are expected to only be marginal, so
little, if any, strengthening is anticipated during the next 12
hours. By 24 hours and beyond, the combination of strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier and more stable air, and
SSTs less than 26C should cause steady to rapid weakening, resulting
in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours and
dissipating shortly after 72 hours, if not sooner.

Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm
as it passes near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from
this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 16.8N  22.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 17.8N  23.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 19.0N  24.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 19.9N  26.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z 21.2N  28.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z 23.0N  32.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Updated 15 October 2019 | 3:51 pm

Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics

Tropical Depression Fifteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 20:50:16 GMT

Tropical Depression Fifteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 21:24:30 GMT

Updated 15 October 2019 | 3:50 pm

Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 152049
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019               
2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Updated 15 October 2019 | 3:49 pm

Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019


000
WTNT35 KNHC 152049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

...DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 22.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 22.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across
the island of Sal this evening and over or near the northern Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and early Wednesday morning.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast tonight and early Wednesday.  Weakening is
expected to begin by Wednesday afternoon, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches) is
based on observations from the Amilcar Cabral Airport on Sal island.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash
flooding and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the
eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight, especially
over higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Updated 15 October 2019 | 3:49 pm

Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)

...DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 15 the center of Fifteen was located near 16.8, -22.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Updated 15 October 2019 | 3:49 pm

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019


000
WTNT25 KNHC 152048
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019
2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  22.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  22.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  22.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.8N  23.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N  24.8W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N  26.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.2N  28.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N  32.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  22.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Updated 15 October 2019 | 3:48 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 151729
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen, located less than 200 miles east of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Guatemala,
southeastern Mexico, and adjacent waters of the Bay of Campeche.
This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern
Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large
portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which
could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the
Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
by Thursday and Friday when the system is located over the western
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located less than 500 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level
winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system,
and further development of this system is not anticipated while
the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Updated 15 October 2019 | 12:29 pm