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Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics

Tropical Depression Claudette 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 02:41:45 GMT

Tropical Depression Claudette 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 02:41:45 GMT

Updated 19 June 2021 | 9:41 pm

Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021


000
WTNT43 KNHC 200239
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Although the center is well inland, Claudette has become better 
organized during the past several hours, with a large area of 
convection forming close to the center in the northern quadrant.  
In addition to this convection, a large area of rain bands is 
present over the eastern semicircle from the northeastern Gulf of 
Mexico northward into southeastern Tennessee   Surface observation 
indicate that the maximum winds have decreased a little more and 
are now 25 kt, with these winds mainly over the Gulf of Mexico to 
the south of the center.  Surface observations also indicate that 
the central pressure is 1005-1006 mb.  

The initial motion is still northeastward, but is a little slower 
than before, 050/12 kt.  A turn to the east-northeast is expected
during the next 6-12 h as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the
north side of the subtropical ridge.  This motion should take the
system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next 36 h 
or so and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic
Canada with a significant increase in forward speed between 36-   
72 h.  The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered and 
has changed little since the last advisory.  So, the new forecast 
track is basically an update of the previous forecast, and it calls 
for the system to be near the coast of North Carolina at about the 
36 h point.

The intensity guidance continues to show a sizable amount of 
spread.  On one side, the GFS has an ill-defined system reaching 
the Carolina coast in 36 h, with only minimal subsequent 
intensification after Claudette moves into the Atlantic.  On the 
other side, the UKMET shows the central pressure falling below 1000 
mb before the system reaches the Atlantic and winds exceeding 50 kt 
once the system is over water.  The ECMWF and Canadian models lie 
between these extremes.  The model forecasts do not show any strong 
baroclinic forcing that would lead to the level of intensification 
shown by the UKMET.  On the other hand, the short-term trends in 
the cyclone's organization currently favor the stronger model 
forecasts.  Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is not 
changed much from the previous forecast, except for moving the time 
of dissipation up by 24 h as Claudette gets absorbed into a large 
extratropical low over eastern Canada.  If the current trends 
continue, or later GFS runs forecast a stronger system, the 
intensity forecast could be adjusted upward in later advisories.

It should be noted that even the weaker GFS solution brings 30-35 
kt winds to the North Carolina coast near the 36 h point, and a 
tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the 
current watch area on the next advisory.

Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, 
and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. 
Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are 
possible across these areas. 
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.  Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be 
required for portions of this area early Sunday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 32.6N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  20/1200Z 33.3N  84.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/0000Z 34.2N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1200Z 35.4N  76.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  22/0000Z 37.7N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  22/1200Z 40.8N  66.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 44.5N  60.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Updated 19 June 2021 | 9:40 pm

Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021


000
FONT13 KNHC 200239
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021               
0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)  12(12)   8(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)  13(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)  17(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)  15(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   7( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X  15(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   3( 3)  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Updated 19 June 2021 | 9:39 pm

Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021


000
WTNT33 KNHC 200239
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
...CENTER OF CLAUDETTE MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 87.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere across the southeast U.S. should monitor the
progress of this system.  Tropical storm warnings will likely be
required for a portion of the watch area Sunday morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 87.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).
A turn toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the system should cross portions of the 
southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and move over the coasts of 
the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are now near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  These winds are mainly occurring over the Gulf of Mexico 
well to the south of the center.  Little change in strength is 
expected tonight and Sunday.  However, the cyclone is forecast to 
become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas 
Sunday night or early Monday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches
across northern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle,
and South and North Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding
impacts, as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river
flooding are possible across these areas.
 
Storm total rainfall is expected to be 5 to 10 inches with isolated
15 inch totals in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the 
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
Sunday night and Monday.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across southeast 
Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia, and across 
parts of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Updated 19 June 2021 | 9:39 pm

Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)

...CENTER OF CLAUDETTE MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Claudette was located near 32.6, -87.0 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Updated 19 June 2021 | 9:39 pm

Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021


000
WTNT23 KNHC 200238
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021
0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  87.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  87.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  87.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.3N  84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.2N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.4N  76.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N  71.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 120SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.8N  66.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 44.5N  60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE  80SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N  87.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Updated 19 June 2021 | 9:38 pm

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at 820 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Updated 19 June 2021 | 7:20 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 192351
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Claudette, located inland over
western Alabama.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Updated 19 June 2021 | 6:51 pm

Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL

Issued at 407 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Updated 19 June 2021 | 4:07 pm

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at 503 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Updated 19 June 2021 | 4:03 pm